Coinchange Asset Allocation Report March 2023

Welcome to Coinchange’s Asset Allocation Report where we provide information on how Coinchange deploys client's assets and diversifies the investments while minimizing risks and maximizing potential earnings. The Asset Allocation Report will be published on a monthly basis to ensure we provide up to date and relevant key metrics related to the state of the client assets. 

This report covers the deployed assets over broad categories of protocol types, blockchains and client invested currencies. Within those categories, the deployed assets are allocated to specific strategies,  which undergo continuous optimization and re-allocations based on the evolution of the market, DeFi protocols, and the technology landscape.

We welcome community feedback to evolve this report to suit your specific needs. Feedback can be provided by sending a message to ccf.research.support@coinchange.io.

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Market Outlook

March was quite stable while having a sharp dip and recovery in the middle of the month for DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL). We started the month at ~$49.6B and ended at the same level at the end of the month. On the other hand, in native unit, Ethereum’s TVL continued its increase from February, topping 18.6M ETH on March 11th, the day USDC depegged started the decrease down to around 16M ETH,  a decrease of about 14%. Ethereum chain is still holding the fort with ~59% of the total TVL whereas runner-ups Tron and Binance chain held ~10% each, same as last month. The activity in the DeFi ecosystem witnessed a surge, causing DEX volume to increase to ~$128B over the past 30 days, an 137% increase since February, close to volume seen in April and May last year. Lido Finance is continuing to hold the top spot after snatching it in January from the long-term king of TVL, MakerDAO. Lido previously held the top spot until June 2022, and today its TVL stands at an impressive ~$10.8B. MakerDAO is holding the second place with a stable ~$7.6B TVL, followed by AAVE and Curve which have distanced themselves since February with ~$5.5B and ~$4.6B TVL for the 3rd and 4th place. Finally Convex Finance gave its #5 spot to Uniswap with ~$3.9B in TVL.

Hence, opportunities mentioned in February Asset Allocation report (guided by our internal risk framework and thresholds) are still allocated in a manner to benefit from Money Market Protocol increased activity. No new strategies have entered production this month. Our strategies still benefit from the positive impact that the current rally has on some of our strategies with exposure to protocol-based liquidity incentives.

Existing Lend/Borrow strategies now benefit from the carry trade sequencing algorithms that have been developed over the previous month. 

We recommend reading our DeFi Research News March 2023 for more insight on the markets. To learn more about where Coinchange rates stand compared to the industry read our Yield Index report February 2023 or the upcoming Yield Index report March 2023

Strategy Concepts and Investment Philosophies

Coinchange is a technology platform that allows users to earn crypto on their holdings by facilitating yield generation through DeFi strategies. Coinchange strategies are automated systems, based on proprietary financial models that rebalance funds in the DeFi ecosystem as per changing market conditions. Our strategies fall into the following areas of the DeFi ecosystem:

Liquidity Provisioning (LP) Strategies

LP strategies are based on participation in DEX protocols. LP plays an important role in Coinchange yield generation vision as it generally provides stable and uncorrelated returns agnostic to the direction of the market. DeFi protocols involved in Coinchange LP strategies include Uniswap, PancakeSwap, TraderJoe, Pangolin and others.

Coinchange LP strategies involve complex hedging and proprietary algorithms that help to maximize yield while keeping the strategy market-neutral. This helps eliminate the risks associated with LP pools that involve volatile currencies such as Ethereum. In addition, Coinchange strategies take advantage of the additional staking of reward tokens provided by associated AMM (Automated Market Maker) protocols.

Lend/Borrow and Arbitrage Strategies

DeFi lending protocols such as AAVE, Venus and others are at the core of this family of strategies. Coinchange strategies are able to maximize earnings using proprietary financial models to maintain optimum collateral levels (with respect to liquidations), stack multiple borrow/lend cycles, and include reward tokens into the yield cycle.

Coinchange also deploys sophisticated strategies that capitalize on arbitrage opportunities in the lend/borrow protocols. Such strategies can be highly beneficial in faster markets with greater levels of activity and interest fluctuations.

Staking Strategies

These strategies take advantage of niche opportunities where staking is the primary mechanism for yield generation. One such strategy leverages the pegged nature of staked Ethereum and uses it to boost the returns of basic Proof-of-Stake Ethereum staking. Such strategies are portable crosschain and can use any Liquid Staking Derivative token (LSD).

Coinchange only deploys assets on quality, widely used, and time-tested DeFi protocols. Below is a list of protocols used in Coinchange strategies:

• AAVE v2-3
• Uniswap v3
• TraderJoe
• Pancakeswap
• Curve
• Venus
• BenQi
• 1Inch
• Pangolin
• Lido

Stablecoin Assets under Management Breakdown

Managed Asset Mix

Below is the distribution of client stablecoin assets managed on the Coinchange platform as of March 31st. Coinchange accepts USDC, USDT and DAI on the Ethereum network. The distribution shows that USDC and USDT are at par, especially after USDC first depegging event on March 11th.

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Stablecoin Asset Allocation Breakdown per DeFi Protocol Type

Coinchange strategies accept and deploy client assets to various DeFi protocols, where each strategy has an algorithm and a set of currencies that it works with. The strategy is able to convert and deploy the assets, and later return them to the original asset upon withdrawal. The analysis below highlights Coinchange’s portfolio structure and the diversification to market mechanisms in the portfolio.

DeFi Protocol Type Groups

DEX: Decentralized Exchange Protocols (aka AMM and LP)

• Uniswap v2
• Uniswap v3
• TraderJoe
• Pancakeswap
• Pangolin

MMP: Money Market Protocols (lending and borrowing)

• Aave v2
• Aave v3
• Compound
• Venus

Staking: Staking Protocols for Governance and Blockchain Tokens

• BenQi
• Lido

The chart below shows strategy asset distribution among the DeFi protocol types. The current portfolio breakdown per protocol type, highlights the portfolio's diversification to market mechanisms while taking the current market environment into account. This protocol distribution is the direct result of the models and algorithms operating behind each strategy.

It can be seen that 99.8% of stablecoin deployments are in MMP protocols. MMP protocols provide a relatively constant, stable yield given current market environments with significant increases in borrowing demand. It can also see spikes in rate in times of volatility, especially in uptrending markets.

0.2% of stablecoin deployment is allocated to the DEX protocols as of March 31st. The reason being that our new DEX strategy launched at the end of January has been divested by the algorithm in the middle of the month since the market changed in nature.

0% of stablecoin deployment is allocated to staking protocols. The Staking strategy has not been resumed since January because the algo determined that strategy parameters such as volatility and interest rate fluctuations amongst other metrics were not within threshold, hence did not motivate a deployment of assets. Furthermore, as the Shanghai upgrade is coming on March 13th, uncertainty and liquidity crunch could happen, which further motivate no allocation to ETH LSD’s.

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Stablecoin Asset Allocation Breakdown per Strategy

Each strategy takes different metrics as input to determine the best asset allocation on a pool basis in order to achieve optimized risk to reward ratio across the portfolio. 

The portfolio of stablecoin strategies treats all stablecoin as one unit of account since our internal due diligence, historical and current volatility analysis has shown that each of them could be securely and safely changed for one another under normal market condition. This explains the discrepancy between the asset received breakdown above and the asset allocation break down per Earn Account.

The pie chart below provides an overview of the stablecoin asset distribution in the different related Earn Account at Coinchange. It is important to note here that each Earn Account can have multiple strategies earning for the specific asset. 

For March we rebalanced a significant portion of USDT back to USDC after USDC regained its peg and settled down. USDT is still preferred for deployment with 69.8% allocation as it proves to generate high yield while offering the largest set of eligible pools/opportunities in DeFi. USDC allocation increased from 19.5% to 30.2% as it continues to allow access to niche strategies while maintaining high liquidity and decent yield. DAI allocation is 0% for March, similar to December, January and february, as too few strategies earning with DAI prove to earn sufficiently high APY to motivate an asset allocation. 

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Stablecoin strategies:

Strategy: Lending loop

• Protocols used: AAVE
• Currency used as input: USDC, USDT
• Blockchain: Avalanche
• Earning: Lending rate, Token incentives
• % of all stablecoin asset deployed: 99.84%

Strategy: FlashCarry

• Protocols used: AAVE, Curve
• Currency used as input: USDC
• Blockchain: Ethereum
• Earning: Lending rate, Token incentives, Staking rate
• % of all stablecoin asset deployed: 0%

Strategy: Hedging Strategy

• Protocols used: Pancake, Venus
• Currency used as input: USDC
• Blockchain: Binance Smart Chain
• Earning: Trading Fee, Token incentives, Staking rate
• % of all stablecoin asset deployed: 0.16%

Below is a pie chart highlighting the stablecoin asset allocation per strategy as of March 31st. Essentially another way to visualize allocation shared in the list above.

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Stablecoin Asset Allocation Breakdown per Blockchain

The chart below shows the resultant strategy asset distribution among blockchains. The blockchain distribution directly reflects the protocols being used by the strategies. Currently, Coinchange strategies operate in one blockchain only.

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Volatile Asset under Management Breakdown

Managed Asset Mix

The chart below shows the asset mix of Bitcoin and Ethereum managed on Coinchange platform as of March 31st. Ethereum yields have historically been much stronger than Bitcon yields, which may explain a clear preference to invest in Ethereum. 

Volatile Asset Allocation Strategy

Similar to January, allocation for both currencies (ETH and BTC) is 100% in MMP (Money Market Protocols). MMP type protocols are preferred in the current market environment as they provide a fairly constant and stable yield for volatile assets.

MMP protocols, which host 100% of Coinchange ETH and BTC assets, are running on the Avalanche blockchain.

Volatile Asset Allocation Breakdown per Strategy

Each strategy takes different metrics as input to determine the best asset allocation on a pool basis in order to achieve optimized risk to reward ratio across the portfolio. 

The portfolio of volatile asset strategies treats all volatile assets separately compared to stablecoin where they are treated as one unit of account. This means that volatile assets can’t be traded one for the other when rebalancing the strategies and also explain that there is no discrepancy between the Asset Managed Mix above and the asset allocation breakdown per Earn Account below.

The pie chart below provides an overview of the volatile asset distribution in the different related Earn Account at Coinchange. It is important to note here that each Earn Account can have multiple strategies earning for the specific asset. Currently we only have 1 strategy for each asset. 

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Volatile crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum

Strategy: Lending loop

• Protocols used: AAVE
• Currency used as input: BTC, ETH
• Blockchain: Avalanche
• Earning: Lending rate, Token incentives
• % of all volatile asset deployed: 100%

• BTC: 9.8%
• ETH: 90.2%

What Coinchange Team is Working on Next

Coinchange DeFi R&D team developed a Framework for Algorithmic Yield Strategies (FAYS) in the DeFi ecosystem and is continuously working on the next iteration and improvement. FAYS consists of a set of tools, models, and processes with the objective of quickly creating and managing effective, secure, and fully automated strategies for yield generation. The goal is to have portfolios of diversified strategies across chains, protocols, and market mechanisms. As we navigate the shifting landscape of DeFi yield, we continue to enhance our tools and internal processes to optimize performance and security. Below are a few points that the Coinchange DeFi R&D team has worked on the past few months in 2023:

Quant research and development:

• The research done on the cornerstone carry trade sequencing algorithms using algorithmic genetic approach has been completed and fully developed.
• We’ve started researching new protocol types to expand our strategy possibilities and portfolio diversification. Specifically, new fundamental research is currently carried out on GMX, a decentralized perpetual protocol. 
• The universal backtester is extensively used for our algorithms. We currently actively monitor 21 pools for LP Hedging strategies with half stablecoin and 9 pools for LP Hedging strategies with volatile assets.
• Portfolio attribution and dashboard for the non-custodial product are currently being developed which will allow the platform to be open to external portfolio managers.

Technology improvements:

• We architectured and developed our non-custodial framework of smart contracts.With this framework, the fund flow is fully transparent on-chain and the management of the smart contract is also fully on-chain. Main difference for clients compared to the custodial product are:

• The client receives an NFT, proving that a deposit has been made to the vault. 
• The client is able to monitor its funds and all transactions happening with the vault directly on-chain. 
• Ownership of the funds remain with the client and withdrawals can be initiated anytime the client wants. Withdrawal can be conditioned to specific features, which can be enabled or disabled, such as lockups or cooldown periods. 

• To enable withdrawal for the non-custodial product, we’ve upgraded the services in charge of such tasks to be smart contracts. Now all withdrawal and subsequent rebalancing are all done using smart contract on-chain without any off-chain services interaction. 
• We developed and implemented algorithms that allow full automation of all families of strategies. Specifically, new centralized services including strategy registry, in/out service and performance attribution service.

Please let us know if there is anything more you would like to see in our future reports by getting in touch with our support team here. If you would like to schedule a demo get in touch here